Gold Macro Fundamental Model

"10Y real yield at 1.77% down from 2.5% highs. Declining trajectory strongly bullish, but absolute level still restrains upside. Trend > Level."

"DXY collapsed from 107.66 to 97.66 (-9.3%). Fiscal deficit at 5.8% of GDP + debt-to-GDP heading to 120% by 2036. Structural dollar weakness is a strong tailwind for gold."

"Central banks bought 863t in 2025, the 4th highest on record. Gold surpassed Treasuries as #1 reserve asset. 57% of purchases were opaque/unreported. This is structural de-dollarization, not cyclical."

"Fed cut 100bps in late 2024, now paused. CPI at 2.4% (Jan 2026), approaching 2% target. Market pricing 2+ more cuts in 2026. Easing bias intact but timeline uncertain."

"Headline inflation cooling to 2.4%, but the debasement trade is about debt, not CPI. $1.9T deficit, debt heading to 140% of GDP by 2031, interest payments alone will be $2.1T/yr by 2036. This is the structural case for gold as the ultimate hard asset."

"Iran nuclear tensions + tariff uncertainty + Warsh nomination creating policy regime shift risk. Multiple overlapping geopolitical risks supporting safe-haven bid. VIX at 18.63 suggests markets not fully pricing tail risks."

"Record $19B ETF inflows in January. AUM at $669B all-time high. This is institutional conviction, not retail FOMO. North America and Asia driving flows simultaneously."

"Mine supply growing modestly but projected to plateau. AISC at $1,521/oz gives huge margins at $5,200 gold. Supply inelasticity means price must do the rationing. 6-year lag between price and new supply response."